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In this analysis
The central bet of Donald Trump's alliance policy is that America's partners are too dependent to resist sustained pressure. Often, in the short term, that is correct. The strategic risk is that allies can learn from dependency.
What happened
Canada is exploring deeper EU alignment amid US trade tension, while Europe has simultaneously pursued defence autonomy and revised its trade relationship with Washington.
The argument
Hegemony is not only the ability to force a partner to say yes. It is the ability to make the partnership valuable enough that alternatives remain unattractive. Coercion spends that reservoir of preference.
The strongest counterargument
Alliances had accumulated free-riding and asymmetries. Pressure can force overdue burden-sharing and may ultimately create stronger partnerships.
What happens next
The long-term metric is not how many concessions Washington wins this quarter. It is whether allied procurement, trade, payments and diplomacy become structurally less dependent on the United States.
Editorial note
This article separates sourced reporting from analysis. The factual record is linked below; judgments and conclusions are State & Power's editorial analysis.