Political change, institutions and regional power across Africa.
A four-party coalition has secured 207 of 395 seats after September's election. The parliamentary majority clarifies government formation but not the boundaries of royal authority.
Eritrea's decision to sever diplomatic ties with Ethiopia and renewed fighting around Tigray are reconnecting border security, port access and regional alliances in the Horn of Africa.
The return of major fighting in northern Ethiopia comes with alliances reversed, Sudan at war and Gulf powers competing across the Horn. A domestic conflict now has more pathways to regional escalation.
President Salva Kiir dissolved South Sudan's transitional government after amendments removed requirements for a permanent constitution and census before a national vote.
Protests over possible constitutional changes show how quickly legal reform can become a legitimacy crisis when presidential tenure is involved.
When citizens repeatedly face attacks abroad, governments eventually pay a credibility cost for treating the problem as a matter of police statements and diplomatic reassurance.
African institutions increasingly speak of influence in a multipolar world. The harder test is whether regional integration can convert economic scale into negotiating leverage.
Geopolitical competition is raising the value of African mineral deposits. The political question is whether producing states capture more than extraction rents.
ECOWAS engagement with Mauritania shows why Sahel security increasingly depends on cooperation that crosses formal regional blocs.
The AU and ECOWAS are deepening conflict-monitoring cooperation. The real test is whether information can be converted into timely political action.