Independent political journalismGlobal · Evidence-led · Argument-driven
STATE & POWER
Understanding power. Explaining a changing world.
State & Power

Asia

Politics and strategic competition across East, South and Southeast Asia.

1 October 2026
Analysis

A Military Readiness Date Is Not an Invasion Calendar

US officials increasingly consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 unlikely, while the intelligence community says Beijing has no fixed timeline. The distinction between capability and intent is central to credible deterrence.

25 September 2026
Analysis

The Trump-Xi State Visit Formalised a Managed Stalemate

Washington and Beijing created new channels and limited trade concessions without resolving the disputes that structure their rivalry. Ceremony became a tool for stabilising competition rather than evidence of strategic convergence.

25 September 2026
Analysis

Taiwan Is Becoming the Hard Limit of the Trump-Xi Bargain

Beijing wants Washington to revisit the logic of the 1982 arms-sales communiqué while the United States treats Taiwan's defence as both a security commitment and negotiating leverage. That makes the island qualitatively different from the summit's trade disputes.

Asia | State & Power