USMCA Was Supposed to Stabilise North American Trade. Tariff Politics Is Reopening the Deal by Other Means

Mexico's negotiations with Washington over cars and steel expose the central weakness of modern trade agreements: the text can promise predictability while domestic politics keeps generating new exceptions.

What happened

Reuters reported that Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard pressed US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick over automotive and steel tariffs as the USMCA review approaches.

The argument

North American manufacturing depends on integrated supply chains, especially in autos. Repeated tariff threats encourage firms to spend more on political hedging and less on efficient production.

The strongest counterargument

Trade agreements cannot prevent governments from responding to dumping, subsidies or security concerns. The United States is entitled to defend strategic industries when market conditions change.

What happens next

The USMCA review will show whether all three governments can rebuild predictable rules or whether the agreement evolves into permanent managed trade.

Editorial note

This article separates sourced reporting from analysis. The factual record is linked below; judgments and conclusions are State & Power's editorial analysis.